ASIATODAY.ID, DAVOS – The outlook for the global economy in 2024 is still weak and surrounded by uncertainty.
This is stated in the Chief Economists Outlook report, which was published Monday, January 15 2024 at the opening of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. This report notes that the global economy is facing challenges due to tight financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI).
According to the report, more than half of the chief economists surveyed (56%) said the global economy would weaken this year. Meanwhile, 43% expect conditions to remain stable or improve. Economists believe that the labor market (77%) and financial conditions (70%) will decline.
“Even though expectations of high inflation have subsided around the world, economic growth varies widely, and no region will record strong growth in 2024,” the report was quoted as saying, Tuesday, January 16 2024.
Director General of the World Economic Forum, Saadia Zahidi, said the Chief Economists Outlook report highlighted the fragility of the global economic climate. As the world confronts differences, economic resilience will face new tests.
“This requires global collaboration to stimulate sustainable and inclusive economic growth,” he said.
Meanwhile the economic outlook in Europe is worse compared to the survey in September 2023. Nearly twice as many respondents expect weak or very weak growth (77%). The outlook is also more pessimistic for the United States, the Middle East and North Africa. About six in 10 respondents expect growth to be moderate or stronger this year.
Around 70% of chief economists agree that geopolitics will trigger volatility in the global economy (87%) and stock markets (80%), strengthen the geoeconomic bloc (80%) and worsen the North-South gap (57%) in the next 3 years.
Impact of AI
The chief economist estimates the benefits of AI will differ significantly between countries with better expectations in high-income countries. The majority of people believe generative AI will increase production efficiency (79%) and innovation (74%) in developed countries this year.
Over the next 5 years, 94% of respondents expect productivity to have a positive impact on the economy in high-income countries, compared to 53% in low-income countries.
The 54th WEF meeting took place on 15-19 January 2024 with the theme “Rebuilding Trust”. Representatives from 100 countries and international organizations, 1,000 forum partners, civil society leaders and experts attended the meeting. (AT Network)
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