ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA — Amid escalating global geopolitical tensions, growing trade fragmentation, and a slowdown in the world economy, the Indonesian government has reaffirmed its confidence that the national economy remains solid and relatively insulated from the risk of a global crisis.
The government continues to strengthen the direction of its economic policy to safeguard macroeconomic stability while improving the quality of medium- and long-term growth.
Global uncertainty, officials argue, demands adaptive, consistent, and structurally oriented policies to ensure Indonesia’s growth momentum is maintained.
“I believe that amid global uncertainty stemming from economic slowdown and rising geopolitical tensions, Indonesia’s economy remains resilient, with a relatively low risk of recession compared to the United States, China, and Japan,” Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said in his keynote speech at the IBC Business Outlook 2026 forum organized by the Indonesian Business Council (IBC) quoted on Monday, January 19, 2025.
Airlangga noted that over the past seven years, Indonesia has consistently recorded economic growth of around 5 percent, resulting in cumulative growth of approximately 35 percent. This performance reflects the country’s economic resilience despite repeated global shocks.
Macroeconomic stability has remained intact. Inflation in December 2025 stood at 2.92 percent, while financial markets continued to post positive trends. Stock indices reached record highs, the rupiah remained relatively stable, and real sector activity stayed expansionary, as reflected by a manufacturing PMI of 51.2 and a rise in the consumer confidence index to 123.5.
Externally, Indonesia’s economic position remains strong. A sustained trade surplus, combined with foreign exchange reserves of USD 156.1 billion, has bolstered the country’s resilience against global volatility.
In the financing and investment sector, bank credit growth has been maintained at close to 8 percent, while foreign direct investment (FDI) has continued to trend upward. This reflects strong global investor confidence in Indonesia’s economic stability and long-term growth prospects.
Airlangga emphasized that the State Budget (APBN) remains a credible and responsible policy instrument. The 2025 fiscal deficit is being kept below 3 percent of GDP, with government debt maintained at manageable levels.
To support household purchasing power and sustain economic growth, the government has rolled out economic stimulus packages throughout 2025 totaling approximately USD 7.05 billion.
Looking ahead to 2026, the government is targeting economic growth of around 5.4 percent. This outlook is supported by a stronger real sector, a series of economic policy packages, and eight national priority programs.
Key focus areas include food security, energy resilience, and the empowerment of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which are expected to generate millions of new jobs each year.
The state budget is also being directed toward human capital development through education, social protection, and workforce skills enhancement.
Productivity-boosting initiatives include apprenticeship programs for new graduates, workforce training, and facilitation of overseas job placements in strategic sectors.
In line with accelerating digital transformation, Indonesia continues to promote regional digital economic integration through the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement. The government is also expanding the regional and international use of the QRIS digital payment system to strengthen financial inclusion and digital literacy.
At the same time, efforts to improve the investment climate are being intensified through regulatory simplification and the acceleration of national strategic projects.
Labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, electronics, and export-oriented manufacturing remain a priority, as the government seeks to maintain competitiveness and protect millions of domestic jobs amid shifting global trade dynamics.
Concluding his remarks, Airlangga called on business leaders and stakeholders to remain optimistic about Indonesia’s economic outlook.
“As we move forward, we must stay optimistic. There will be many positive developments. I am confident that global institutions, including the IMF, also remain optimistic about Indonesia’s economy,” he said. (ATN)
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