ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA – The world economy will continue to grow in 2024 as in 2023 and global inflation is expected to decline gradually.
The World Stainless Steel Association (formerly the International Stainless Steel Forum / ISSF) released figures for the full year 2023 showing that stainless steel smelter production increased by 4.6% year-on-year to 58.4 million metric tons .
The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) predicts further growth in the stainless steel sector in 2024, particularly in China and Indonesia.
According to Paul White, Secretary General of INSG, the growth rate of nickel use in electric vehicle (EV) batteries is lower than expected, this is influenced by the removal of subsidies, competition with non-nickel batteries (especially lithium iron phosphate) and relatively recent preferences This affects the demand for electric vehicle batteries. -in hybrid EVs versus battery EVs.
“In Indonesia, production of various types of nickel products is expected to continue to increase. These include nickel pig iron (NPI), mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) from a high-pressure acid leach plant (HPAL), nickel matte converted from NPI, nickel cathode, and nickel sulfate. “In China, NPI production is likely to decrease in 2024, but nickel cathode and nickel sulfate production is projected to increase, resulting in an overall increase in output,” said Paul when speaking at the Indonesia Critical Mineral Conference held by Shanghai Metal Markets (SMM) together with the Miners Association. Indonesian Nickel (APNI) in Jakarta, Wednesday, June 12 2024.
Elsewhere Paul said, due to profitability issues, a number of production facilities were stopped, had their production reduced, or were considering the possibility of one of these options in the future.
In detail, Paul stated that world primary nickel production will be 3,060Mt in 2022 and 3,356Mt in 2023, and is expected to reach 3,554Mt in 2024. This estimate does not include an adjustment factor for possible production disruptions.
World primary nickel use is 2,963Mt in 2022 and 3,193Mt in 2023.
“INSG estimates this will increase to 3,445Mt in 2024. Therefore, the implicit market balance is a surplus of 98kt in 2022, 163kt in 2023 and 109kt in 2024,” he explained.
Paul concluded that the global primary nickel market is expected to remain in surplus in 2024, with Indonesia and China driving the market.
At the same time, production cuts have occurred in other parts of the world. Stainless steel is the most important first-use sector, but batteries are also the most important sector gaining market share.
“ESG and other national policies (subsidies, tariffs) may have a significant impact on supply and demand,” he added. (ATN)
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