ASIATODAY.ID, BEIJING – China’s dominance over global critical mineral supply chains is no longer limited to rare earth elements alone.
A growing body of evidence shows that Beijing now exercises near-total control over five strategic minerals that underpin electric vehicles (EVs), advanced manufacturing, aerospace, semiconductors, and modern defense systems—deepening the vulnerability of Western industry.
According to Rare Earth Exchanges released on December 29, 2025, China controls the processing and refining of 19 out of 20 strategic minerals worldwide, with an average market share approaching 70 percent. This leverage is most potent not at the mining stage, but at the industrial chokepoint where raw materials are converted into high-grade, usable inputs.
Five Minerals, One Strategic Reality
Even when rare earths are excluded, the concentration remains striking. Five minerals—graphite, lithium, cobalt, high-purity manganese, and tungsten—form the hidden backbone of the global energy transition and the modern arsenal economy.
Graphite: The EV Battery Chokepoint
Graphite is the largest material component by weight in lithium-ion batteries. The United States produces virtually no natural graphite, while around 90 percent of battery-grade graphite processing is controlled by China. Much of the graphite mined outside China must still be refined there, leaving EV supply chains acutely exposed to disruption.
Lithium: Power Lies in Refining, Not Mining
While lithium is mined in Australia and Latin America, the strategic advantage lies in chemical conversion. China controls roughly 70 percent of global lithium refining capacity, giving it decisive influence over battery-grade lithium carbonate and hydroxide—the real currency of energy storage.
Cobalt: The Congo–China Supply Corridor
An estimated three-quarters of global cobalt production originates in the Democratic Republic of Congo, yet much of it flows through Chinese-controlled refining networks. Despite efforts to reduce cobalt intensity in batteries, demand remains strong for aerospace alloys, turbines, and military-grade materials.
High-Purity Manganese: The Overlooked Bottleneck
Manganese ore is abundant, but battery-grade, high-purity manganese is not. China dominates the processing of manganese sulfate and electrolytic manganese metal, with concentration estimates reaching up to 90 percent. As battery makers reduce cobalt use, reliance on manganese—and Chinese processing—only deepens.
Tungsten: A Strategic Metal with No Substitute
Tungsten remains critical for cutting tools, aerospace components, and defense manufacturing. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey show China accounts for roughly 80 percent of global tungsten production, reinforcing its leverage over hard-metal supply chains. Expanded export controls in 2025 further highlighted this strategic chokehold.
Processing Power as a Strategic Weapon
China’s advantage is not merely industrial scale, but its willingness to use processing dominance as a geopolitical tool. Export controls, licensing delays, and regulatory friction on minerals such as graphite, gallium, germanium, and antimony have demonstrated how quickly supply chains can be throttled—often without dramatic headlines.
The International Energy Agency has been unequivocal: supply concentration risks are now operational realities, not future scenarios.
Western Response and the Limits of Policy
In 2025, the United States began shifting its focus from mining independence to processing security, launching investigations under Section 232, invoking emergency powers, funding domestic projects, and forming allied frameworks—most notably with Australia. High-profile initiatives, including a multibillion-dollar critical minerals smelter with direct U.S. government equity participation, signal a sharper industrial policy stance.
Yet analysts warn the scale remains insufficient compared with the depth of China’s entrenched advantage.
The Bottom Line
China’s control over critical minerals—including rare earths and a deeper layer of less-visible inputs—has become one of the defining strategic risks facing Western industry. The challenge is no longer awareness, but time, capital, and execution.
Until large-scale non-Chinese processing capacity exists for graphite, lithium, manganese, cobalt, tungsten, and rare earths, the U.S. and its allies remain technologically advanced—but materially dependent.
In today’s global economy, the lesson is clear: mines may belong to geography, but refining belongs to power. (AT Network)
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