ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA – Four years after the military coup which plunged Myanmar into turmoil, the country is facing an unprecedented “polycrisis,” marked by economic collapse, intensifying conflict, complex climate hazards and deepening poverty, according to a new report by the UN Development Programme (UNDP).
Myanmar’s Enduring Polycrisis: Four Years into a Tumultuous Journey, launched on Wednesday, points to the bleak picture of a nation in freefall, with nearly half the population living below the poverty line, essential services crumbling and the economy in disarray.
With no political resolution in sight, the crisis is expected to worsen in the coming year.
“The coming year will test Myanmar’s resilience to its limits,” the report warns, calling for urgent international engagement to mitigate further suffering and prevent total collapse.
“A more stable and peaceful Myanmar that thrives on a legal economy, protects it human and natural resource assets and invests in the safety and prosperity of all its people is also in the self-interest of its neighbours and the international community writ large,” it added.
Black market boom
Since 2020, Myanmar’s gross domestic product (GDP) has contracted by nine per cent, reversing the economic progress of the previous decade.
Inflation reached 25.4 per cent reached in 2024, further eroding household purchasing power. The trade deficit ballooned to 2.2 per cent of GDP, exacerbated by severe restrictions on cross-border commerce, and the currency plummeted over 1,330 kyat per US dollar in 2021 to 4,520 in 2025, making imports unaffordable and sending prices soaring.
The economic situation worsened further as the country was blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) for failing to combat money laundering and terrorist financing.
Against this backdrop, Myanmar’s illicit economy is thriving and it has become the world’s leading producer of opium and heroin, and one of the largest manufacturers of methamphetamines.
The jade industry, valued at billions of dollars annually, remains largely unregulated, fuelling corruption and environmental degradation. Illegal gambling, human trafficking, and scam operations have flourished along the country’s porous borders.
Society in crisis
Myanmar’s ongoing conflict has displaced more than 3.5 million people within the country and driven many more across its borders. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) lack vital assistance and protections, and host communities are reeling under the strained resources.
Hunger is reaching catastrophic levels and agricultural productivity has declined by 16 per cent since 2021, largely due to conflict and climate-related disasters.
Fertilizer shortages, skyrocketing fuel prices, and trade disruptions have driven the price of the staple rice up by 47 per cent in some regions. The western state of Rakhine is particularly vulnerable, with food production projected to meet only 20 per cent of local needs by mid-2025, raising fears of famine-like conditions.
Public services are also severely affected, with over half of the country lacking access to electricity and hospitals out of service in conflict zones.
Looming brain drain
The dire economic and security situation has led to an exodus of Myanmar’s youth, with 3.7 million having migrated to Thailand by 2023. Many face exploitation and forced labour due to restrictive legal migration pathways, while those who remain are at risk of forced conscription into the military.
School enrolment rates have also dropped significantly as access to educational facilities has been disrupted by conflict and economic hardships. In the 2023/2024 academic year, over 20 per cent of children were not attending school.
Crisis or opportunity?
The outlook for Myanmar remains precarious. If current trends continue, poverty will rise further, migration will intensify and the country’s fragile economy will struggle under the weight of continued conflict and international isolation, the report warns.
Despite Myanmar’s deepening crisis, opportunities for recovery exist.
The report highlights the resilience of local communities and the potential of civil society organizations in rebuilding social cohesion. Engaging the diaspora through education and skills development could help retain and attract talent, while expanding opportunities for women in business and employment could boost household incomes.
Agricultural revitalisation, through climate-resilient crops and irrigation, is crucial for food security, while investment in environmental protection – such as reforestation and mangrove restoration – could safeguard jobs in the future.
UN chief urges return to civilian rule as crisis worsens
The UN Secretary-General on Thursday said Myanmar’s military must relinquish power to allow a return to civilian rule through an inclusive democratic transition, as the country marks four years since the junta seized power.
Following the coup, President Win Myint and State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi were detained and the country was plunged into a humanitarian and human rights crisis that has only worsened amid an intensifying civil conflict.
“Secretary-General António Guterres condemns all forms of violence and calls on all parties to the conflict to exercise maximum restraint, uphold human rights and international humanitarian law, and prevent further incitement of violence and intercommunal tensions,” UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said in statement.
The situation in Myanmar is in freefall, with nearly 20 million people – a third of the population – expected to need humanitarian aid this year.
Hunger has reached alarming levels, with 15 million people projected to face acute food insecurity in 2025, up from 13.3 million last year. The cost of basic food staples has risen by 30 percent in the past year due to soaring inflation and supply chain disruptions caused by conflict.
“Even if some food is available in local markets, people simply don’t have the resources to buy the basics, which means they are eating less and going hungry,” said Michael Dunford, UN World Food Programme (WFP) Representative in Myanmar.
Conflict, displacement and economic collapse
Fighting between junta forces and opposition armed groups – marked by indiscriminate aerial bombardments, village burnings, and executions – has displaced over 3.5 million people within the country.
Many others have fled across borders seeking safety, particularly in Thailand and Bangladesh.
Those in conflict-affected areas, including Chin, Kachin, Rakhine and Sagaing regions, are suffering the worst levels of food insecurity. The collapse of Myanmar’s economy, combined with access restrictions and disasters, has left communities on the brink.
Concerns over elections
Secretary-General Guterres also expressed concerns over the military’s plan to hold elections, warning that intensifying conflict and widespread human rights violations do not permit free and peaceful polls.
He said more cooperation was essential on the part of political and military leaders to bring an end to hostilities and help the people of Myanmar forge a path towards an inclusive democratic transition.
“A viable future for Myanmar must ensure safety, accountability, and opportunity for all its communities, including the Rohingya, and address the root causes of conflict, discrimination and disenfranchisement in all its forms,” the statement noted.
End the nightmare
Tom Andrews, the UN’s independent human rights expert on Myanmar, criticized the junta’s election plans as “a fraud,” stressing that it is not possible to hold a legitimate vote while arresting, detaining, and executing opposition leaders and criminalizing media freedom.
“Junta forces have slaughtered thousands of civilians, bombed and burned villages, and displaced millions of people. More than 20,000 political prisoners remain behind bars,” he said.
“The economy and public services have collapsed. Famine and starvation loom over large parts of the population,” he added.
Best days lie ahead
Calling on the international community “to help end the nightmare” in Myanmar, Mr. Andrews praised the resilience of Myanmar’s pro-democracy activists, journalists, and humanitarian workers who continue to document abuses and provide aid.
“The resilience and courage of Myanmar’s people continue to amaze and inspire others around the world…These heroic efforts are compelling indicators that Myanmar’s best days lie ahead,” he said.
The Special Rapporteur urged governments to impose stronger sanctions, restrict the junta’s access to weapons and support international justice mechanisms, including efforts to bring Myanmar’s military leaders to justice in the International Criminal Court (ICC).
“Impunity has enabled a decades-long cycle of violence and oppression in Myanmar. Ultimately, this sad chapter of Myanmar’s history must end with junta leaders being prosecuted for their crimes,” he said.
Mandated and appointed by the Geneva-based Human Rights Council, Mr. Andrews is works independently of the UN Secretariat. He is not a staff member and draws no salary. (UN News)
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