ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA – The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has set the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) for April 2025 at USD 65.29 per barrel, as stipulated in Ministerial Decree No. 176.K/MG.01/MEM.M/2025. This marks a significant decline of USD 5.82 per barrel from March’s ICP of USD 71.11.
A major driver of this price drop is the escalating trade war between the United States and China. The imposition of tariffs and retaliatory economic policies by the world’s two largest economies has rattled global markets, including the energy sector. The uncertainty caused by these trade tensions has suppressed oil demand and contributed to falling prices worldwide.
Beyond the trade conflict, several global factors have also exerted downward pressure on oil prices:
Slowing Global Economic Growth: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% in its April 2025 report. Slower growth translates to weaker oil demand across industries.
Lower Oil Demand Forecasts: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) adjusted its global oil demand projections downward. The forecast for 2025 was revised from 105.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 105.05 million bpd, while the 2026 estimate dropped from 106.63 million bpd to 106.33 million bpd.
Increased Supply and Inventories: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply in March 2025 rose by 590,000 bpd to reach 103.6 million bpd. In the U.S., commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels at the end of April, reaching 442.9 million barrels.
Acting Director General of Oil and Gas, Tri Winarno, stated, “The most significant declines were recorded in OECD countries, China, and India.”
He also highlighted regional factors, such as a reduction in Taiwan’s crude run rate by 30,000 bpd in late April 2025, bringing utilization down to 785,000 bpd—72% of total refinery capacity.
April 2025 Oil Price Movements
Compared to March 2025, the average prices of major global crude benchmarks in April saw declines:
Dated Brent: Down USD 4.82, from USD 72.60 to USD 67.79 per barrel
WTI (Nymex): Down USD 4.98, from USD 67.94 to USD 62.96 per barrel
Brent (ICE): Down USD 5.01, from USD 71.47 to USD 66.46 per barrel
OPEC Basket: Down USD 4.76, from USD 74.00 to USD 69.24 per barrel
Indonesia’s ICP: Down USD 5.82, from USD 71.11 to USD 65.29 per barrel
The steep drop in Indonesia’s ICP for April and the broader decline in global oil prices underscore the far-reaching impact of the US-China trade war. Tariff battles between the two economic giants have intensified market volatility and weakened demand across multiple sectors.
As energy markets adapt to these shifting dynamics, countries must recalibrate their economic and energy strategies accordingly. (AT Network)
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