ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA – Tourism across Southeast Asia has staged a strong post-pandemic recovery, but the regional competitive landscape is shifting rapidly.
While Vietnam is emerging as the most aggressive challenger, Indonesia is steadily losing ground, and even Thailand—long regarded as the region’s tourism powerhouse—is now facing mounting pressure to defend its market position.
According to data from the ASEAN Statistics Division (ASEANStats), international tourist arrivals to ASEAN exceeded 127 million in 2024. Around 85.7% of these visitors were concentrated in just five countries.
Thailand led with 35.5 million arrivals, followed by Malaysia (25 million), Vietnam (17.6 million), Singapore (16.5 million), and Indonesia, which ranked fifth with 14.3 million arrivals.
Despite the headline recovery, Indonesia’s position is increasingly fragile. Senior Analyst at NEXT Indonesia Center, Sandy Pramuji, said the figures reflect a broader erosion of Indonesia’s competitiveness within ASEAN.
“Indonesia is no longer setting the pace. It is falling behind regional peers, particularly Vietnam, which has overtaken Indonesia for two consecutive years,” he said in Jakarta on January 18, 2026.
Vietnam’s Ascent Redefines Regional Competition
Vietnam has become the clearest symbol of ASEAN’s shifting tourism hierarchy. International arrivals surged from just around 4,000 visitors in 2021 to 12.6 million in 2023, before rising further to 17.6 million in 2024—outperforming Indonesia, which recorded 11.7 million arrivals in 2023 and 14.3 million in 2024.
Vietnam’s success is closely linked to its ability to anticipate changes in global travel trends, particularly among Chinese tourists, while simultaneously expanding air connectivity and accelerating infrastructure development.
Ambitious plans include the construction of up to 12 new airports, high-speed rail networks, and large-scale hotel projects across multiple regions.
“Vietnam has moved decisively,” Sandy noted.
“Projects like Long Thanh International Airport, designed to handle up to 100 million passengers annually, underscore how seriously Vietnam is positioning itself as a regional aviation and tourism hub. Indonesia, by contrast, continues to face constraints in international connectivity.”
As a result, Indonesia’s share of ASEAN’s tourism market fell from 13.51% in 2022 to 11.45% in 2023, before declining further to 11.28% in 2024. Vietnam and Singapore, meanwhile, have steadily strengthened their positions.
Thailand Feels the Heat
The intensifying competition is no longer limited to Indonesia. Thailand itself is showing signs of vulnerability.
Data cited by regional media indicate that international arrivals to Thailand declined by 7.2% in 2025, while Vietnam posted growth of more than 20%, highlighting a sharp divergence in performance.
Industry observers warn that Thailand is entering a critical phase. Bill Barnett, Managing Director of C9 Hotelworks, described the current moment as decisive for Thailand’s tourism sector.
“This is no longer about recovery—it is about recalibration. Regional competitors are investing billions, and Thailand can no longer rely on past success. The decisions made now will shape the next decade,” he said.
While Thailand retains strong brand recognition and appeal, experts argue it must innovate rapidly—diversifying destinations, refreshing tourism products, and adapting to evolving traveler preferences—to avoid losing ground to more agile competitors.
Indonesia Struggles in the Chinese Market
Indonesia’s competitiveness gap is especially pronounced in attracting Chinese tourists, a key driver of ASEAN’s tourism rebound. In 2024, Chinese arrivals to Indonesia reached only 1.2 million, far below Thailand (6.7 million), Vietnam (3.7 million), Malaysia (3.3 million), and Singapore (3.1 million).
“This is not simply a marketing issue,” Sandy explained. “It points to structural weaknesses—limited direct flights, insufficiently targeted promotion, and inconsistent readiness of destinations beyond Bali.”
Overreliance on Bali and Stalled Diversification
Domestically, Indonesia’s heavy dependence on Bali has become an increasing liability. The island is showing clear signs of overcrowding, including chronic traffic congestion, waste management challenges, and environmental stress caused by land conversion. These pressures risk eroding visitor satisfaction over time.
The government’s “New Bali” initiative and the designation of five Super Priority Destinations were intended to diversify tourism growth. However, destinations such as Lake Toba, Borobudur, Mandalika, and Labuan Bajo continue to face persistent challenges related to service ecosystems, connectivity, and investment sustainability.
Likupang in North Sulawesi has also lost momentum after being removed from the list of top priorities in the 2025–2029 national development plan.
“If these destinations fail to attract meaningful international visitor flows, large-scale infrastructure spending risks delivering limited economic returns,” Sandy warned.
A Regional Race with No Room for Complacency
The evolving dynamics highlight a broader truth: ASEAN’s tourism recovery is no longer a collective rebound, but a high-stakes regional race. Vietnam is accelerating, Singapore is consolidating its role as a premium hub, Thailand is being forced to rethink its strategy, and Indonesia risks being squeezed in the middle.
As Southeast Asia’s largest country with immense natural and cultural assets, Indonesia should be a leading tourism magnet. Without bold reforms, however, it risks prolonged marginalization in an increasingly competitive regional market.
“The choice is stark,” Sandy concluded. “Either Indonesia undertakes comprehensive reforms to restore its competitiveness, or it accepts a future where tourism revenues continue to flow to faster-moving neighbors.” (AT Network)
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