ASIATODAY.ID, GENEVA – Asia is set to face heightened climate stress in early 2026, as lingering La Niña–like conditions combine with rising global temperatures, according to the latest Global Seasonal Climate Update released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Although sea-surface temperature patterns in the equatorial Pacific are forecast to gradually shift toward ENSO-neutral conditions, WMO warns that atmospheric impacts typical of La Niña are expected to persist—placing Asia among the most affected regions worldwide.
Weak La Niña, Strong Regional Impacts
Between September and November 2025, global sea-surface temperatures were generally above average, except across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. While the cooling in this region remains consistent with a weak La Niña, a pronounced east–west temperature gradient has continued to drive La Niña-like atmospheric circulation.
This pattern has direct implications for Asia, particularly East Asia, Southeast Asia, and the western Pacific rim. At the same time, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—marked by above-normal temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean—has reinforced climate variability across South and Southeast Asia, including Indonesia.
Above-Normal Temperatures Forecast Across Much of Asia
For the January–March (JFM) 2026 period, multi-model climate forecasts indicate high probabilities of above-normal land surface temperatures across large parts of Asia, with strong model agreement over: East Asia, Northern Asia at higher latitudes, Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent.
Parts of Central and South Asia
WMO notes that Southeast Asia is likely to experience persistent heat stress, compounded by warm ocean conditions that may intensify impacts on public health, agriculture, and energy systems.
Unstable Rainfall Patterns Heighten Risks
Despite the projected weakening of La Niña, rainfall patterns across Asia are expected to remain highly variable. Forecasts suggest:
– Increased probabilities of below-normal rainfall in parts of East Asia
– Enhanced chances of above-normal rainfall over the western Pacific, including the Philippine Sea and maritime Southeast Asia
– Elevated uncertainty across South Asia, where rapid shifts between heavy rainfall and dry spells are possible
These conditions raise the risk of flooding in coastal and island regions of Southeast Asia, while localized drought stress may emerge in parts of East and South Asia.
Food and Energy Security at Stake
WMO highlights that the combination of heat anomalies and erratic rainfall could disrupt: major Asian food production systems, including rice and wheat, hydropower generation and water resource management, regional food and energy price stability.
With Asia home to more than half of the world’s population, the region stands at the epicenter of global climate vulnerability in early 2026.
Call for Early Action Across Asia
WMO urges governments across Asia to strengthen: early warning systems for extreme weather, climate-resilient agriculture and water management, cross-sector adaptation and disaster preparedness strategies.
“A weakening La Niña does not mean diminishing risk,” the report cautions, January 5, 2026.
“In Asia, climate impacts may become more complex and more disruptive during the transition toward ENSO-neutral conditions.” (AT Network)
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