ASIATODAY.ID, BEIJING — Just weeks before the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday, China has taken a sweeping step by canceling all scheduled flights across 49 routes to and from Japan, delivering a major shock to Japan’s tourism industry—one of the sectors most reliant on Chinese travelers.
At least three major Chinese airlines—Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern Airlines—halted scheduled flights throughout February 2026, following an official travel advisory issued by Beijing urging Chinese citizens to avoid leisure travel to Japan amid deteriorating bilateral relations.
Data from Chinese travel platform Flight Master shows that the cancellation rate for flights between mainland China and Japan surged to 47.2 percent in January 2026, up 7.8 percentage points from December 2025. The cancellations include 113 flights on the Beijing Daxing–Osaka Kansai route and 13 flights between Shenzhen Bao’an and Hokkaido’s New Chitose Airport.
Beyond suspending flights, Chinese carriers have also extended free ticket change and refund policies for Japan-related travel until October 24, 2026, far beyond the initial deadline of March 28, 2026.
Air China said tickets issued before January 26, 2026, for travel between March 29 and October 24, 2026, qualify for no-penalty changes or full refunds.
Political Tensions Behind the Decision
The aviation freeze comes against the backdrop of escalating political tensions between Beijing and Tokyo, which intensified in late 2025 after remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan.
Tokyo warned that a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait could pose an “existential threat” to Japan and trigger a military response—comments that drew strong reactions from Beijing.
Security Warnings and Natural Disaster Risks
China’s government has also cited security concerns. In a formal statement, Beijing’s consular authorities warned of a deterioration in public safety in Japan, pointing to repeated criminal incidents allegedly targeting Chinese nationals.
The advisory further referenced a series of earthquakes across parts of Japan that resulted in injuries, urging citizens to reconsider travel during the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday in February 2026.
“Chinese nationals in Japan face serious security risks,” the statement said on January 27, 2026.
A Costly Boycott for Japan
The impact is significant. China has long been Japan’s largest source of inbound tourists, with nearly 7.5 million Chinese visitors recorded in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for roughly one-quarter of all foreign arrivals, according to official figures.
Chinese tourists are also among the biggest spenders. Japanese officials estimate they generated around USD 3.7 billion in the third quarter of 2025 alone, boosted by a weak yen.
However, the downturn has been sharp. Chinese visitor numbers fell by about 45 percent year-on-year in December 2025, dropping to approximately 330,000 arrivals.
Japan’s Tourism Minister Yasushi Kaneko acknowledged the decline, calling it the lowest monthly figure since January 2022.
2026 Outlook: Pressure Set to Persist
Japanese travel agency JTB expects the fallout to continue well into 2026. While China has not imposed an outright travel ban, strong social pressure and informal restrictions on group tours are already reshaping travel patterns.
JTB projects that total inbound tourism to Japan in 2026 will reach only about 41.4 million visitors, a 2.8 percent decline from 2025. The figures underscore how the China-led boycott has become a tangible drag on Japan’s tourism recovery, amid broader geopolitical uncertainty in East Asia.
What was once peak season for Japan’s tourism economy has turned into a stark warning: Lunar New Year 2026 may arrive without China. (AT Network)
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