ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA – Countries in the South Asia region are now facing an alarming situation due to climate change.
The founder of environmental organization Climate Nexus, Jeff Nesbit, said water scarcity in Pakistan could be very dangerous. South Asia is experiencing drought and water is a serious problem.
Climate change causes erratic rain patterns, resulting in flash floods and droughts as well as water scarcity and melting glaciers. Climate change also increases rainfall intensity and river flow.
Reporting from Euro Asia Review, Monday, August 12 2024, based on a report published in the African scientific journal in 2022, over the last 60 years Pakistan experienced 19 major floods which affected 594,700 kilometers of land and 166,075 villages. This caused losses of up to US$30 billion and claimed 10,668 lives.
Pakistan experienced deadly floods in 2010 and 2012. The impact of climate change is expected to further affect water availability and quality in South Asia.
Water availability is not the only problem of South Asia, but of the whole world. In a McKinsey report, by 2030 it is estimated that only 60 percent of the world’s population will use clean water, while 40 percent of the population or 3 billion people will not have access to clean water.
In that scenario, 70 percent of the water would be used for agriculture. The question is whether this could increase the possibility of war over water? The reason is that in 2030, the world population will reach 8.3 billion people.
Therefore, climate change is likely to impact security in volatile regions around the world. Climate change affects water availability through erratic rainfall patterns.
Climate change also causes glaciers to melt more quickly, shrinking ice sheets, raising sea levels and causing floods, droughts and other natural disasters.
According to the SDG Report 2022, around 2 billion people need access to safe drinking water, and only 0.5 percent can use it.
Over the past 20 years, water in the form of snow, ice and soil moisture has decreased by 1 cm per year. Is South Asia facing serious water security problems?
In the 2023 UN Water Meeting report, it is stated that 90 percent of disasters are related to water and climate change is the trigger. South Asia, which is one of the most densely populated regions and is home to a quarter of the world’s population, is very vulnerable to climate change.
A report by the United Nations Department of Economic, Social and Population Affairs said that as groundwater declines due to rising urban populations, water scarcity in South Asia will worsen. About half of India’s population by 2030 will experience acute water scarcity.
Research conducted by ORF shows that India’s per capita water availability has fallen from 1986 cubic meters in 1998 to 1731 cubic meters in 2005, so that the country is almost declared to be experiencing water scarcity.
The situation in Pakistan is not much different. For example, per capita water availability in 1951 was 5260 cubic meters, then in 2016 it fell to 1017 cubic meters. Apart from that, climate change is also accelerating the melting of glaciers.
The Hindu Kush mountains, home to some 54,000 glaciers, are melting rapidly. This poses a major threat to India and Pakistan. Melting glaciers can trigger flash floods at the start and drought at the end.
Since 2010, the glaciers in these mountains have been reported to be melting at a high rate. The glaciers melted 65 percent faster.
This condition will have an impact on agricultural production because this sector accounts for 90 percent of water consumption, and the impact of climate change will reduce crop yields from 4 to 10 percent by 2050, a direct threat to food security.
Both India and Pakistan rely on irrigation for agriculture. However, India’s irrigation efficiency is around 38 percent, while Pakistan’s is 40 percent. In such situations, water storage plays a key role.
Relations between India and Pakistan are established by water. The two countries share water from the Indus Basin which originates from the Himalayan and Hindukush mountains. These two countries also signed the India water treaty as their borders cut off most of the water flow with the help of the World Bank in 1960.
However, India is still building the Ganga Krishan dam as a ceiling to fight climate change. India built this dam on the upstream of the Bonar Nalla river, which is located in Kashmir.
India believes this dam will meet its electricity needs. In 2013, Pakistan filed a case against India in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, claiming the project would reduce natural water flows by 27 percent. So the question arises: will there be a water war between Pakistan and India?
Although climate change has not been directly linked to war or conflict, in her speech in the senate, senior politician and opposition leader to the Pakistani government, Sherry Rehman said water security issues pose a security threat in South Asia. (AT Network)
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