The national rice absorption target for 2026 has jumped dramatically to 4 million tonnes in order to consolidate the newly achieved self-sufficiency status. This ambitious figure requires agricultural production to far exceed the ecological carrying capacity of the land. The government appears eager to pursue record growth statistics without considering the heavy burden on increasingly fragile land. Food policy remains focused on satisfying immediate hunger while neglecting the sustainability of biological resources.
According to a report by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), rice production in 2025 will reach 34.7 million tonnes. This achievement represents a significant increase of 13.5 per cent compared to the previous year’s production of only 30.34 million tonnes. Agricultural land now requires 9.55 million tonnes of subsidised fertiliser each year to maintain high harvest yields. Uncontrolled exploitation of soil nutrients has caused the quality of rice fields to decline dramatically to an all-time low.
Indonesia’s sustainability and adaptation scores in the global food security index are at a worrying level. The national strategy appears to focus more on the physical availability of food than on the health of the supporting ecosystem. The opening of new large-scale land continues to be driven by national strategic programmes in pursuit of rice production volume. These expansive measures often encroach on protected areas that should be the last bastion of biodiversity.
The allocation of fertiliser subsidies in 2026, which will reach nearly 10 million tonnes, will actually prolong dependence on fossil fuels. The trillions of rupiah in funding should be used to finance a massive transition to a more independent regenerative agricultural system. The policy of setting a maximum retail price for inorganic fertilisers has made farmers even more reluctant to consider organic fertilisers. This paradox proves that the government prefers instant solutions rather than building natural-based food sovereignty.
Yingying Xing and colleagues, in an article entitled “Enhancing soil health through balanced fertilisation: a pathway to sustainable agriculture and food security” published in 2025, state that the continuous use of chemical fertilisers reduces soil organic matter, compacts the soil, disrupts microbes, and reduces long-term fertility. High dependence on inorganic fertilisers—especially when excessive and inefficient—clearly threatens the sustainability of soil, water, climate, and biodiversity, even though it helps increase production.
Md. Kafil Uddin and colleagues in an article entitled “Organo-mineral fertiliser to sustain soil health and crop yield for reducing environmental impact: A comprehensive review” published in the European Journal of Agronomy in 2025 recommend strategies for reducing dosage, balanced fertilisation, organic-inorganic integration, and the adoption of smart fertiliser technology to balance food needs and environmental sustainability. Where a gradual transition to more organic systems such as the use of organic fertilisers, biofertilisers, compost, and crop rotation/cover crops improves soil structure, microbial diversity, and ecosystem resilience.
Data from the Ministry of Agrarian Affairs shows that the threat of rice field conversion still looms large despite the designation of protected land status. Infrastructure development and industrial estates often encroach on the most fertile agricultural areas on the island of Java. The government then attempts to replace them with marginal land outside Java that has very low fertility levels. This land substitution strategy is merely a patchwork solution that will never achieve similar production efficiency.
Dependence on commercial seeds has led to local rice varieties being increasingly marginalised from the national agricultural scene. Farmers are now forced to purchase very expensive production input packages in order to meet the quantity standards demanded by the market. New high-yield seeds require many times more water and pesticides than native varieties. The loss of seed sovereignty is the beginning of the collapse of food security rooted in the independence of farming communities. Local rice varieties are indeed being increasingly marginalised by uniform modern varieties, and this has been shown to reduce genetic diversity in many regions. This was revealed in an article entitled “Genetic Diversity of Landraces and Improved Varieties of Rice (Oryza sativa L.) in Taiwan” written by Ai-ling Hour and colleagues, published in 2020.
The rate of deforestation for the expansion of new planting areas increases the risk of hydrometeorological disasters that threaten the planting cycle itself. Extreme flooding and drought are now common occurrences due to the destruction of river basins around food-producing areas. Rice production targets are often missed when nature begins to show signs of exhaustion due to human exploitation. Sustainable agriculture remains nothing more than rhetoric without real coordination between relevant ministries.
The gap between the rice surplus figures and the actual welfare of farmers shows that there is something wrong with the distribution system. Paddy prices often fall during the harvest season even though production costs continue to rise due to the price of non-subsidised inputs. The government seems to be more concerned with stabilising consumer prices in urban areas than with the livelihoods of food producers in rural areas. This economic injustice has led to a generation of young people who are reluctant to work in the rice fields and choose to migrate to the service sector instead.
The future of this nation’s food security must not be sacrificed for the sake of a temporary self-sufficiency award plaque. The synergy between meeting nutritional needs and preserving the environment is a non-negotiable priority. Healthy soil is the most valuable legacy for future generations, not merely a commodity to be exploited to the fullest. A paradigm shift towards agriculture that honours nature must be implemented immediately before our food reserves are completely depleted and destroyed.
Production Increases, Environmental Quality Suffers
The euphoria surrounding the 13.29 per cent increase in rice production in 2025 to 60.21 million tonnes of milled dry grain masks the sad reality of environmental damage. The pursuit of this quantitative target forces the land to work beyond its natural capacity. Harvest statistics are often claimed as a great success without mentioning the ecological costs that the earth must pay dearly. National agricultural policy still prioritises volume over ecosystem health.
Our agricultural land is now exposed to 9.55 million tonnes of chemical fertilisers per year. This figure has risen significantly compared to the previous decade. Chronic dependence on synthetic nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium has caused the soil to lose its organic support. The average organic content in Java’s rice fields, for example, is now below two per cent. This sharp decline in
Groundwater carrying capacity is also becoming increasingly critical. Intensive irrigation for rice farming requires enormous volumes of water, causing a decline in the water table. Data shows that many rice-producing areas experience a deficit of clean water during the dry season. The massive use of pesticides and herbicides also pollutes water sources. These chemical residues accumulate in the food chain, potentially endangering public health.
Biodiversity in rice field ecosystems is also threatened with extinction. Monoculture of high-yield rice varieties has displaced thousands of local varieties that are adaptable to the local environment. The use of pesticides kills natural pollinating insects and pest predators that are vital to ecological balance. The loss of these small species disrupts the natural balance, making agriculture increasingly vulnerable to new pest attacks.
The rate of conversion of fertile agricultural land in Java reaches tens of thousands of hectares each year. Data from the Ministry of Agrarian Affairs and Spatial Planning/National Land Agency shows that land conversion for infrastructure and settlements continues to increase. The government then attempts to open up new land outside Java, which is often peatland or protected forest. The clearing of peatland triggers massive carbon emissions and threatens global climate stability.
Large-scale food barn projects often neglect in-depth environmental studies. The construction of food barns in disaster-prone areas such as peatlands or former forest fire sites triggers very high ecological risks. Trillions of rupiah are often wasted due to crop failure in unsuitable environments. The pursuit of production targets actually accelerates deforestation and land degradation.
The inland fisheries and fishing sectors have also been affected by agricultural pollution. Fertiliser and pesticide residues carried by water flows contaminate rivers and lakes. The drastic decline in water quality kills fish populations and vital aquatic microorganisms. Ironically, the farming communities that should benefit the most have become the first victims of an increasingly polluted environment.
High food production targets achieved at the expense of the environment are nothing but an illusion. Sustainable production will never be realised if land and water continue to be exploited relentlessly. The quality of food produced is also questionable if it comes from an ecosystem that is already damaged. A full plate of food should come from sustainable land, not from land that is already dying.
The government must have the courage to shift its paradigm from merely chasing numbers to restoring the health of the agricultural ecosystem. Investment in sustainable agricultural practices such as agroecology and organic farming is far more important than subsidies for chemical fertilisers. The future of national food security depends heavily on the courage to undertake fundamental transformation now. Otherwise, future generations will only inherit barren land and hungry stomachs.
Short-Term Trap
The current national food policy is caught in a vicious cycle of pursuing instant harvest targets that neglect future carrying capacity. The government appears eager to boost annual production figures for the sake of market price stability and an image of self-sufficiency on the political stage. This strategy is like recklessly consuming natural capital without ever thinking about how to replenish it. The focus on quick results means that the principle of sustainability is merely a footnote in development planning documents.
Chemical fertiliser subsidies, which drain tens of trillions of rupiah from the budget, are the main instrument perpetuating this trap. This massive allocation of funds should be able to finance a large-scale transition to organic fertiliser independence at the farmer level. However, chronic dependence on synthetic inputs is being maintained in order to keep production levels from declining in the short term. This dependence creates systemic fragility because national food security is dependent on the mining industry and global commodity price fluctuations.
The minimal agricultural research budget exacerbates the lag in adaptation to the increasingly apparent climate crisis. National research is still dominated by efforts to discover seeds that require high chemical inputs rather than varieties that are resistant to drought or flooding. The government seems reluctant to invest in water conservation technologies and soil structure improvement, the results of which will only be visible a decade from now. This reluctance proves that our vision of food sovereignty only extends as far as the term of office of a minister or regional head.
New rice field cultivation programmes on marginal land are often carried out hastily without thorough hydrological studies. The ambition to expand planting areas on peatlands or sandy soils often ends in embarrassing crop failures. These projects drain enormous amounts of state financial resources but contribute very little to production. This failure demonstrates that forcing political will upon the laws of nature always leads to a waste of state funds.
The agricultural machinery assistance scheme is also often not accompanied by education on proper land management. Overly intensive soil cultivation using heavy machinery actually accelerates the deterioration of the physical structure of the soil and the release of carbon emissions. Mechanisation without an understanding of ecology only accelerates the process of desertification of agricultural land in various productive areas. Farmers are forced to become machine operators who are disconnected from the natural fertility of the soil.
The food logistics and distribution system remains highly vulnerable to extreme weather disruptions due to damage to supporting infrastructure. The government prefers the option of emergency imports when supplies are disrupted rather than fundamentally improving the supply chain from upstream to downstream. This short-term solution through imports often hits grain prices at the farmer level just as the harvest season arrives. Price uncertainty makes the agricultural sector unattractive to the younger generation, who prefer the formal urban sector.
The lack of synchronisation between the roadmaps for food security and environmental conservation has resulted in overlapping policies. The Ministry of Agriculture continues to push for land expansion, while the Ministry of Environment struggles to curb deforestation caused by land clearing for food production. This sectoral egoism hinders the creation of an integrated agricultural model that can produce food while preserving forest functions. Regulatory disharmony creates loopholes for more massive environmental destruction in the name of feeding the people.
The orientation towards exporting certain commodities often sacrifices local food diversity, which is far more adaptive and nutritious. The focus on monoculture rice cultivation across the country has destroyed the tradition of consuming nutrient-rich non-rice foods. This standardisation of the national diet makes dependence on a single commodity extremely dangerous in the event of a massive crop failure. Food diversification only emerges as a topic of discussion when rice prices surge, only to be forgotten again when stocks are deemed secure.
True food sovereignty cannot be built on fragile foundations and shortcuts. Policies that focus solely on annual statistics betray the rights of future generations to fertile land. The government must immediately step out of its comfort zone of instant solutions and begin investing in the comprehensive restoration of the health of the agricultural ecosystem. Without the courage to overhaul the paradigm, this nation will remain trapped in a recurring food crisis on an increasingly destructive scale.
Learning from Past Failures
The dark history of the one million hectare peatland project in the 1990s should serve as a stark reminder for today’s policymakers. The grand ambition to transform the swamp ecosystem into a national rice granary ended in ecological disaster and immeasurable financial losses for the country. The forced stripping of peatland released massive carbon emissions and triggered years of forest fires that were difficult to extinguish. This monumental failure proves that imposing political will over the laws of nature always leads to systemic destruction.
Environmental audit reports on various food estate projects for the 2020-2024 period show an almost identical pattern of failure. Thousands of hectares of forest were cleared for the cultivation of cassava and rice, which ultimately withered due to soil nutrient deficiencies. The government seems reluctant to reflect on academic papers written by archaeologists regarding local wisdom in water management. The neglect of hydrological aspects and the specific characteristics of marginal land continues to be repeated in the name of national food security.
The Green Revolution that began in the 1970s did indeed lead this nation to achieve self-sufficiency in food production, as recognised by the World Food Organisation. However, this short-lived success came at a high price: the destruction of the soil’s biological structure due to the indiscriminate use of pesticides and chemical fertilisers. We are now reaping the long-term consequences in the form of “sick soil” that no longer responds to man-made nutrients. Dependence on imported hybrid seeds has also led to the extinction of thousands of local rice varieties that were far more resistant to endemic pests.
The bitter experience of the 1998 food crisis taught us that resilience based solely on stock figures in Bulog warehouses is extremely fragile. When the exchange rate plummeted, the cost of agricultural inputs that depended on imported raw materials skyrocketed uncontrollably. Small farmers suffered the most because they lost access to affordable production capital. The helplessness of local food producers in facing global market fluctuations is clear evidence of the fragility of the foundations of food self-sufficiency that we have built.
New rice field cultivation programmes in transmigration areas often neglect socio-cultural aspects and the sovereignty of local indigenous communities. Land that has been managed for generations using agroforestry systems is being converted into monoculture rice fields that are alien to the local population. Agrarian conflicts erupt as a result of overlapping land claims between the state and residents who have settled there for hundreds of years. A top-down approach without the participation of grassroots communities has proven to only leave behind long-lasting social problems.
Data from various independent studies confirm that large-scale food projects often only benefit large corporations that supply equipment and chemicals. Local farmers are marginalised, becoming farm labourers on their own land without any guarantee of a decent livelihood. The promised partnership schemes are often unequal and favour the interests of capital owners over the sovereignty of farmers. This extractive development model will never be able to create equitable and sustainable food security.
The failure of non-rice food diversification in the past was the result of overly dominant rice-centric policies at the central level. Campaigns to consume sago, corn, and tubers only appeared as seasonal slogans without adequate research and processing infrastructure support. The public was forced to consume rice through food aid, causing the archipelago to slowly forget the richness of other local carbohydrates. This standardisation of national tastes has made us increasingly vulnerable to sudden disruptions in global rice distribution channels.
The government must have the courage to conduct a comprehensive audit of every rupiah spent on large-scale food projects that have failed in the past. Budget transparency and accountability for fieldwork results are essential to prevent similar mistakes from being repeated in different guises. Learning from failure means having the humility to acknowledge that technology and capital cannot always overcome the laws of nature. Environmental conservation must be given equal priority to meeting the calorie needs of the people in order to prevent future famines.
The future of national agriculture must be based on regenerative agriculture that honours ecosystems and local wisdom. Farming traditions that are in harmony with the rhythms of nature have proven to be more resilient in the face of climate crises than rigid industrial systems. The government needs to facilitate the restoration of damaged land through policies that favour the conservation of biological resources. Only by respecting history and learning from the wounds of the past can this nation build true and lasting food security.
Calling for Conscience in Policy
Decision-makers must immediately realise that production growth figures are meaningless if the ecosystem that supports them is dying. Imposing self-sufficiency targets through reckless land exploitation is a form of neglecting the rights of future generations. National food policy requires a new moral compass that places environmental sustainability as a key pillar, not merely as an accessory to formal speeches. It is time for the government to stop playing with the future of the people’s stomachs in pursuit of short-term political recognition.
The extractive agricultural paradigm that has been glorified for so long must be ended immediately for the sake of the safety of our shared living space. Trillions of rupiah in state funds must no longer be squandered on financing environmental destruction through chemical subsidies or ecologically flawed food barn projects. Soil health restoration and water source conservation must become the primary performance indicators for every relevant agency in the food sector. Without the courage to change course, this nation is only planning for a greater famine crisis due to the destruction of the foundations of natural fertility.
True food security can only be achieved through the sovereignty of farmers over their own land and seeds. The government must provide real protection for productive agricultural land from industrial concrete development and residential expansion. The law must be enforced without exception against any attempts to convert rice fields that threaten the stability of the national food supply. Support for small farmers is the true test of the conscience of policies that have so far tended to favour the interests of large corporations.
Cross-sectoral synchronisation between ministries is no longer an option, but an urgent and absolute necessity. The sectoral egos that have hitherto hindered synergy between production and conservation must be immediately eliminated for the sake of greater national interests. A smart food policy is one that is able to feed the people today without destroying the kitchens of future generations. The grand vision of national independence will remain a pipe dream if nature, as the main engine of food production, continues to be treated as the enemy.
Full support for regenerative agriculture research must be a top priority in the allocation of national research funds. Technological innovation should no longer focus solely on how to squeeze the land, but must be able to offer sustainable ecosystem restoration solutions. Local knowledge that has been tested over centuries must be integrated into modern agricultural systems in order to create adaptive resilience to climate change. Investing in ecological intelligence is far more valuable than purchasing expensive agricultural machinery that actually accelerates land degradation.
Local food diversification must be realised through concrete steps to develop non-rice agricultural product processing industries in every region. The government must have the courage to break the chain of dependence on a single major commodity that makes the national food system extremely fragile. People’s plates need to be refilled with the archipelago’s rich biodiversity, which is healthier for the body and kinder to the environment. Appreciating food diversity is a form of respect for the nation’s natural wealth and cultural identity, which is very noble.
Transparency and accountability in food budget management are absolute requirements for the creation of clean and authoritative policies. Every failure of a large-scale food project must be openly accounted for in front of the public so that it does not become a recurring historical burden. The people have the right to know how state resources are used to ensure the availability of healthy, affordable and sustainable food. Honesty in acknowledging past mistakes is a very important first step towards fundamental improvement of the national food system.
The increasingly extreme climate crisis demands a more responsive policy response with a long-term vision. Policies that are merely reactive and piecemeal have proven incapable of solving the increasingly complex root causes of food insecurity. The leaders of this nation must have the conscience to see that every inch of damaged land is a huge loss to the sovereignty of the state. Saving the environment is an act of true patriotism that is most needed amid the looming threat of a global food crisis.
Indonesia’s future depends on how strongly policy makers uphold the balance between human needs and environmental sustainability. Agricultural development must be guided by a spirit of reverence for the earth as the womb of life that nourishes all people. Do not allow statistics on food progress to be built on the ruins of ecological destruction that is impossible to restore. Now is the time to take decisive action to ensure that our food barns remain full and our land remains fertile until the end of time. (*)