ASIATODAY.ID, ROME – A new warning has emerged over global food security.
The latest report from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that world food prices rose again in February 2026 after five consecutive months of decline.
At the same time, the agency warns that 41 countries now require external food assistance, driven by conflict, economic instability, and climate-related shocks.
The increase is reflected in the FAO Food Price Index, the benchmark indicator tracking monthly changes in international food commodity prices. In February 2026, the index averaged 125.3 points, 0.9 percent higher than in January, though still 1 percent lower compared with the same period last year.
Rising prices for wheat, vegetable oils, and several types of meat pushed the index upward, offsetting declines in sugar and dairy products.
Wheat and Rice Prices Begin to Climb
Pressure in global food markets is particularly visible in cereal commodities. The FAO Cereal Price Index increased 1.1 percent from the previous month.
The rise was mainly driven by higher global wheat prices, following reports of frost affecting parts of Europe and the United States, as well as ongoing logistical disruptions in Russia and the wider Black Sea region, a key corridor for global wheat exports.
International maize prices also posted a modest increase. Meanwhile, rice prices rose 0.4 percent, supported by steady demand for premium varieties such as basmati and Japonica.
Vegetable Oil Prices Reach Highest Level Since 2022
The sharpest increase occurred in the vegetable oil sector. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index surged 3.3 percent in February, reaching its highest level since June 2022.
Global palm oil prices climbed amid strong import demand and seasonally lower production in Southeast Asia.
At the same time, soybean oil prices strengthened due to expectations of supportive biofuel policies in the United States.
Prices for rapeseed oil also rebounded, driven by stronger import demand for Canadian supplies. In contrast, sunflower oil prices eased slightly due to rising export volumes from Argentina.
Meat Prices Rise While Sugar Drops Sharply
The FAO Meat Price Index increased 0.8 percent compared with January.
Prices for ovine meat reached an all-time high, while bovine meat prices rose due to strong import demand from China and the United States. Prices for pork and poultry also edged slightly higher.
Meanwhile, the FAO Dairy Price Index declined 1.2 percent, largely driven by lower cheese prices. However, prices for skim and whole milk powder increased amid stronger import demand from North Africa, the Near East, and Southeast Asia.
The most significant decline occurred in the sugar market. The FAO Sugar Price Index fell 4.1 percent compared with January and was 27.3 percent lower than in February 2025, reflecting expectations of ample global supplies.
Global Wheat Production Expected to Decline
Beyond price movements, FAO also released preliminary forecasts for global wheat production in 2026. Output is expected to decline by about 3 percent to 810 million tonnes, although it would still remain above the five-year average.
The projected decline is largely attributed to reduced winter wheat plantings in the European Union, Russia, and the United States, as softer crop prices discourage farmers from expanding acreage.
In contrast, production prospects in India remain favorable, supported by government incentives that encouraged record sowings. Outlooks are also positive for Pakistan and broadly favorable in China.
Global Cereal Production Hits Record Levels
Despite pressure in some markets, FAO estimates that global cereal production in 2025 reached a record 3.029 billion tonnes, representing a 5.6 percent increase from the previous year.
Global cereal utilization for the 2025/2026 season is also forecast to reach a record 2.943 billion tonnes, with rising consumption expected for wheat, coarse grains, and rice.
World cereal stocks are projected to reach 940.5 million tonnes, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 31.9 percent, suggesting overall global supply conditions remain relatively comfortable.
Global cereal trade during the 2025/2026 marketing year is forecast to reach 501.7 million tonnes, 3.5 percent higher than the previous year and the second-highest level on record.
Conflict and Climate Shocks Deepen Food Insecurity
Despite relatively stable global supply levels, FAO warns that food security remains fragile in many parts of the world.
According to the organization’s latest global monitoring system, 41 countries currently require external food assistance, most of them located in Africa.
The primary drivers include armed conflict, insecurity, and climate-related shocks that have disrupted domestic food production and supply chains.
Among the 44 Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries, aggregate cereal production is expected to decline by 1 percent in the 2025/2026 season, while consumption is projected to increase by 1.5 percent. As a result, import requirements are likely to rise to 55.7 million tonnes.
The situation highlights a growing paradox in the global food system: while global production reaches record levels, food insecurity continues to expand in many vulnerable regions. (AT Network)
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