ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects that economic growth in Southeast Asia will increase, driven by strong domestic demand and a sustainable tourism recovery.
“This subregion is expected to grow by 4.6 percent in 2024 and 4.7 percent in 2025, up from 4.1 percent in 2023,” said ADB in its annual report Asian Development Outlook April 2024 in Jakarta, Friday, 26 April 2024.
ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said developing countries in Asia are projected to grow by 4.9 percent in 2024 and 2025. Inflation will slow to 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3 percent in 2025.
Indonesia is expected to maintain growth of 5 percent in 2024 and 2025 respectively, supported by strong private consumption, public infrastructure spending and a gradual increase in investment over the forecast period.
In addition to strong domestic demand, a turnaround in merchandise exports starting in mid-2024 will drive growth in Thailand by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3 percent in 2025, Vietnam by 6 percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025, the Philippines 6 percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025, and Malaysia 4.5 percent in 2024 and 4.6 percent in 2025.
In addition, tourism will support services growth, while industrial output will move in line with export recovery and monetary policy easing.
“Growth in developing countries in Asia will remain strong this year, despite uncertainty in the external environment,” he said.
According to Albert, policymakers must monitor several negative risks. Escalating geopolitical conflicts and tensions could disrupt supply chains and increase commodity price volatility.
Risks related to the direction of United States monetary policy, pressure on the property market in China, and the impact of bad weather are other pressure points for the Asian region.
Policymakers must increase efforts to increase resilience by continuing to improve trade, cross-border investment and commodity supply networks. (ATN)
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