ASIATODAY.ID, YANGON — Myanmar’s economy is showing only moderate signs of recovery as the country continues to confront a combination of severe shocks, from the devastating March 2025 earthquake to persistent nationwide conflict and deep-rooted structural weaknesses. These findings are highlighted in the latest World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, released today, December 8, 2025.
The report notes that firms operated at higher capacity in October 2025 compared to April, while the kyat has steadily appreciated throughout the year following a sharp depreciation in 2024. Although inflation has eased, overall prices remain elevated, keeping household purchasing power under intense strain.
Freight transport volumes also increased in the six months leading to September 2025, signaling a partial recovery of supply chains disrupted by the earthquake.
“These early signs of recovery are encouraging,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Division Director for Thailand and Myanmar.
“However, Myanmar’s economy continues to face formidable obstacles, including limited reconstruction financing, ongoing conflict and insecurity, and unreliable electricity supply.”
Economic Contraction Persists Despite Mild Improvements
The World Bank projects that real GDP will contract by 2.0 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2026—an upward revision from the previous estimate of -2.5 percent. Looking ahead, a moderate rebound of 3 percent is forecast for FY2026/27, supported primarily by post-earthquake reconstruction efforts and targeted assistance for the most affected households.
Inflation, however, is expected to remain above 20 percent in the near term, keeping living costs elevated. Fiscal pressures will also persist, with the budget deficit projected to reach 5 percent of GDP due to increased reconstruction spending. Public debt is expected to stay above 60 percent of GDP, reflecting heavier domestic borrowing needs.
Agrifood Sector Emerges as a Critical Buffer
Despite recurring floods and widespread damage from the earthquake, Myanmar’s agrifood sector remains a resilient pillar of economic activity and job creation. The sector accounts for 27 percent of gross value-added and provides 22 percent of manufacturing employment, underscoring its central role in sustaining livelihoods.
“Strengthening agrifood value chains is crucial for resilience and jobs,” said Kemoh Mansaray, World Bank Senior Economist.
“International experience shows that improving the enabling environment and investing in agricultural infrastructure can make a significant difference.”
Recommended interventions include strengthening producer–processor linkages, upgrading storage and logistics infrastructure, and expanding access to modern processing technologies. (AT Network)
Follow Us at Google News and WA Channel