ASIATODAY.ID, KUALA LUMPUR – The Philippines has officially taken over the ASEAN chairmanship from Malaysia, marking the beginning of a new chapter for Southeast Asia as tensions in the South China Sea are expected to dominate the regional agenda.
The handover ceremony took place in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday, October 28, 2025 during the closing of the 2025 ASEAN Summit.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim symbolically passed the gavel of leadership to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who will assume the bloc’s chairmanship starting January 1, 2026.
“On the first day of 2026, ASEAN will begin a new chapter,” Anwar declared in his closing speech.
South China Sea Becomes Hot Topic Under Philippine Leadership
The Philippines, along with Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, and Vietnam, is among the ASEAN nations with overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, a vital maritime route connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans and rich in natural resources.
Although a 2016 international tribunal ruling invalidated Beijing’s sweeping maritime claims, China continues to assert sovereignty over nearly the entire sea, fueling frequent confrontations with Philippine coast guard vessels in recent months.
“The South China Sea only draws attention when incidents at sea flare up—and lately, it’s been heating up,” said a Southeast Asian diplomat.
ASEAN–China Code of Conduct Negotiations Enter Crucial Stage
For more than two decades, ASEAN and China have been negotiating a Code of Conduct (CoC) aimed at preventing open conflict and establishing clear rules of engagement in disputed waters. Both sides hope to finalize the long-delayed pact next year, two decades after it was first proposed.
In his address, President Marcos Jr. highlighted the importance of regional unity amid growing maritime tensions.
“Positive results can be achieved if we remain committed to cooperation and meaningful engagement, especially in the South China Sea,” he said.
However, Manila-based geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill warned that any agreement reached with China is unlikely to be legally binding.
“China might agree to symbolic provisions, but not to anything that would genuinely restrict its actions on the ground,” he said.
Analysts expect the Philippines to adopt a balanced approach—working to prevent escalation while seeking cooperation with Beijing in areas like marine meteorology and traditional fishing rights.
Myanmar Crisis Adds to Manila’s Diplomatic Burden
Beyond maritime disputes, the Myanmar political crisis remains another pressing issue for ASEAN under the Philippines’ 2026 chairmanship. The country has been mired in civil conflict since the 2021 military coup, with national elections scheduled for December 28, 2025.
Mustafa Izzuddin, an international affairs expert at Solaris Strategies Singapore, cautioned that the Philippines must not allow the South China Sea issue to overshadow other ASEAN priorities.
“Manila must ensure that the South China Sea doesn’t eclipse ASEAN’s broader agenda,” he said.
Diplomatic sources suggest ASEAN will not send official observers to Myanmar’s elections—a move viewed as a setback for the junta’s quest for international legitimacy, though some member states may send observers independently.
The Philippines is also expected to lead discussions on appointing a permanent ASEAN special envoy to address the Myanmar situation and to decide whether junta representatives will be invited to future summits.
Marcos Jr.’s Leadership Faces a Critical Test
As President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. prepares to lead ASEAN in 2026, all eyes are on the Philippines to maintain a delicate balance between national interests, regional unity, and major-power rivalries involving the United States and China.
The coming year will serve as a litmus test for ASEAN’s cohesion and credibility—determining whether the bloc can strengthen its role as a stabilizing force in Asia or succumb to internal divisions and external pressures. (AT Network)
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