ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA — Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s offer to mediate the escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel is facing growing skepticism from foreign policy observers.
With tensions in the Middle East showing no signs of cooling, analysts warn that Indonesia’s diplomatic initiative may be premature — and unlikely to gain traction in the current climate.
Escalation Leaves Little Room for Diplomacy
Tia Mariatul Kibtiah, a Middle East analyst and lecturer at Bina Nusantara University, argues that mediation efforts typically succeed only when both sides signal readiness to de-escalate.
“How can you mediate when all parties are still in a heated state? Mediation is about calming and reconciling — and that is extremely difficult under current conditions,” she said during a televised discussion on March 4, 2026.
According to Tia, Iran’s stance remains firm, with tensions reportedly rising further after attacks targeted key political and military figures while negotiations were still ongoing.
“When talks were at a deadlock but still ongoing, and then sudden strikes killed top national and religious leaders, that deeply wounded Iran. Entering as a mediator at such a moment is incredibly difficult,” she explained.
Bilateral Ties Not a Guarantee
Although Indonesia maintains relatively stable diplomatic relations with both Tehran and Washington, Tia stressed that this does not automatically make Jakarta an acceptable mediator.
She also questioned whether Indonesia’s status as the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation would carry diplomatic weight in this particular crisis.
“That narrative may resonate in the context of the Palestinian–Israeli conflict. But this is a confrontation between the United States and Iran. The dynamics are different,” she noted.
Indonesia’s lack of formal diplomatic relations with Israel further complicates its potential role.
Advised to Wait for the Right Moment
Tia suggested that Jakarta should avoid rushing into a high-profile diplomatic initiative.
“It would be better not to ‘show off’ in a situation like this. Observe how the situation develops. If negotiations resume and Iran is willing to return to the table, then Indonesia can offer constructive contributions,” she said.
At the same time, diplomatic pressure is mounting after Iran’s ambassador to Indonesia praised countries that openly condemned US and Israeli strikes — implicitly urging Jakarta to take a firmer stance.
Tia pointed to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who publicly condemned the attacks, as an example of decisive political positioning on the global stage.
A Major Geopolitical Confrontation
The analyst underscored that the current crisis is not a minor regional dispute but a major geopolitical confrontation with global implications, including energy security and international market stability.
She questioned whether US President Donald Trump — or Iranian leadership — would realistically respond to Indonesia’s mediation offer amid active hostilities.
“This involves the United States, Iran, and Israel. It’s a large-scale geopolitical conflict. Is it realistic to expect that they would immediately listen to Indonesia under these circumstances?” she asked.
Opportunity May Come — But Not Now
While Indonesia’s ambition to play a peacemaking role aligns with its long-standing foreign policy principles, analysts conclude that the timing may not be right.
The window for mediation, they argue, will only open once escalation subsides and both sides demonstrate a genuine willingness to re-engage in dialogue.
Until then, Jakarta faces a strategic dilemma: step forward boldly — or wait for the storm to pass. (AT Network)
Follow Us at Google News and WA Channel