ASIATODAY.ID, JAKARTA — Oil prices across the Asia-Pacific region came under renewed pressure at the end of 2025, dragging Indonesia’s crude benchmark sharply lower amid persistent oversupply and weakening regional demand.
The average Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) for December 2025 was set at USD 61.10 per barrel, down USD 1.73 per barrel from USD 62.83 per barrel in November.
The pricing decision was formalized through Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No. 10.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2026, signed on January 9, 2026.
The decline highlights growing concern over an emerging Asia-Pacific-led oil surplus, as global supply continues to outpace demand growth in the region.
High U.S. production, increased output from OPEC+, and projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) point to a global surplus of 3.7–4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, amplifying downward pressure on regional benchmarks.
Demand weakness in Asia, particularly in China, has become a key driver. China’s crude throughput fell 0.9% month on month in November 2025 to 14.86 million bpd, its lowest level in six months, signaling slower refinery activity and softer consumption across the Asia-Pacific market. This slowdown has directly affected price formation in importing countries such as Indonesia.
Director General of Oil and Gas Laode Sulaiman said easing geopolitical risks have further reduced price support in the region. Expectations of de-escalation in the Russia–Ukraine conflict have lowered risk premiums that traditionally support oil prices in Asian markets.
At the same time, supply growth continues to intensify. Russia has projected oil production to rise to 10.36 million bpd in 2025, with output expected to increase further to 10.54 million bpd in 2026. OPEC+ production also rose in November 2025, increasing by 43.065 thousand bpd on a month-on-month basis.
“The December decline in ICP reflects rising global supply and weaker demand conditions across the Asia-Pacific region,” Laode said in Jakarta quoted on Monday January 19, 2026.
Additional pressure emerged as OPEC revised its non-OPEC+ production growth forecast for 2025 upward to 0.95 million bpd, up 40 thousand bpd from the previous projection.
In contrast, S&P Global cut its 2025 oil demand growth outlook by 16 thousand bpd to 730 thousand bpd, reinforcing concerns over slowing Asian demand.
Asia-Pacific Benchmarks Move Lower
The decline in Indonesia’s ICP mirrored broader weakness in global and regional crude benchmarks in December 2025 compared with November:
– Dated Brent fell USD 0.95 per barrel to USD 62.70 per barrel
– WTI (Nymex) declined USD 1.61 per barrel to USD 57.87 per barrel
– Brent (ICE) dropped USD 2.02 per barrel to USD 61.64 per barrel
– OPEC Basket slid USD 2.61 per barrel to USD 61.85 per barrel
– Indonesia’s ICP fell USD 1.73 per barrel to USD 61.10 per barrel
With Asia-Pacific demand losing momentum and global supply continuing to rise, oil prices across the region—including Indonesia—face sustained pressure as markets move into 2026. (AT Network)
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