ASIATODAY.ID, ABU DHABI — The long-running conflict in Yemen is now emerging as a serious threat to OPEC unity, as political tensions between two of its most influential members—Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—spill into the global oil arena.
While OPEC+ is widely expected to keep oil production levels unchanged at its meeting this Sunday, insiders say the deepening rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
The Yemen conflict risks undermining the fragile consensus that has long allowed OPEC+ to prioritize market management over geopolitical disputes.
Eight key OPEC+ producers repoted—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—raised output targets by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025. The increase came despite oil prices plunging more than 18% over the course of 2025, marking the steepest annual decline since 2020.
Saudi–UAE Rift Puts OPEC+ Cohesion at Risk
Tensions escalated sharply after UAE-backed southern Yemeni factions seized territory from the Saudi-supported Yemeni government, turning Yemen into one of the most public and consequential disputes between the two Gulf oil heavyweights in years.
The UAE announced plans to withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen after Saudi Arabia backed calls demanding Emirati troops leave the country within 24 hours.
In response, the Saudi-aligned Yemeni government launched what it described as a military operation to reclaim strategic positions, while southern separatists accused Saudi forces of carrying out at least seven airstrikes since the announcement.
The confrontation has created structural tensions within OPEC+, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not only regional power brokers but also architects of the group’s production strategy and market influence.
Market Stability Versus Internal Fragmentation
In November 2025, OPEC+ agreed to delay planned production increases for January through March 2026 in an effort to stabilize prices.
Analysts say the decision to hold output steady this time reflects not only market fundamentals, but also a desire to contain political fallout within the alliance.
Historically, OPEC has preserved cohesion even during major geopolitical conflicts—including the Iran–Iraq War—by separating politics from oil policy. However, analysts argue the Yemen conflict poses a more acute risk because it directly involves two of OPEC+’s central power brokers.
If the Saudi-UAE standoff continues to escalate, the risk of fragmentation within OPEC+ could intensify. At a time of fragile oil demand and heightened market sensitivity, any breakdown in unity would weaken the group’s ability to steer global energy markets. (AT Network)
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